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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd