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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.